Macron opinion polls

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is down to the lowest of his presidency, at only 31 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, according to the CIVIQS rolling job-approval average as of Saturday. While 12 percent of all survey participants did not approve or disapprove of the president, the majority of respondents in 48 states disapprove of Biden’s job performance. The only two states in which he is above water are Hawaii and Vermont. Overall, Biden has a net approval of negative 26. The 31 percent approval rating marks Biden’s worst approval rating since becoming president, down from 32 percent and 33 percent in earlier June and 34 percent in May. Biden is underwater with independent respondents — a voter bloc which has an increasingly strong influence on election results. Only 20 percent of independent respondents say they approve of Biden, while 67 percent disapprove, with 13 percent having no opinion. Biden’s marquee legislative proposal , … [Read more...] about CIVIQS Poll: Joe Biden Approval Lowest of Presidency – 31% Overall

How many urban constituencies does India really have? How many Muslim-dominated constituencies do we have? These are key questions around our elections that we have simply not been able to answer – until now. [A brief aside on a frustrating data issue, before I get to the meat of the matter. Feel free to scroll down to the charts if this does not interest you.] Most demographic data for India comes from the Census, which splits its data down from the state and district level to the block, village and town level. The smallest unit of Census data is an Enumeration Block (EB) which consists of around 150 households. Electoral data, on the other hand, comes from the Election Commission of India (ECI), and is centred around parliamentary and assembly constituencies, the smallest unit of which is a polling booth which covers around 1,000 voters. The problem is that the ‘twain don’t meet. Theoretically, if the ECI simply listed all the Census EBs in an assembly or parliamentary … [Read more...] about Urban voters, Muslim voters – Lok Sabha mysteries solved

The BJP’s performance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections was nothing short of spectacular. To go from 46 seats and 14 per cent vote share to 122 seats and 28 per cent vote share in the span of one election is incredible. This achievement is particularly notable in light of the fact that the BJP has been in a pre-poll alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra for the last 25 years. What does it mean to go it alone in a state where you have had a partner for 25 years? Let’s look first at the 2009 and 2014 Assembly elections only, because the delimitation of constituencies that took place in 2008 makes analysis prior to 2009 a bit complicated. >Pratap Vardhan , a data scientist at >Gramener , did the number-crunching on this one. The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats. This time around, the BJP contested 111 of the 119 seats it had contested in 2009, the rest going to its allies. It won 82 of them, with a voteshare of a whopping 47.55 per cent in these 111 seats, … [Read more...] about The Crest and Trough of a Wave