Over the past 85 years, only three American presidents have been voted out of office. In each case, the incumbent faced a serious intra-party challenge and grappled with a sluggish economy. Remove those factors and the climate becomes very conducive for re-election. That’s why George W. Bush rode out the growing public dissatisfaction with the Iraq War in 2004 and Bill Clinton sailed to victory in 1996 while facing a sexual-harassment suit from Paula Jones. Heading into the 2020 election, with a Democratic field that includes former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro and former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke, it doesn't look like Donald Trump will encounter either a serious Republican challenger or a bad economy. Sure, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld has committed to challenging Trump for the GOP nomination. But Weld has no constituency in the party. The last time Weld came close to holding public office was in 1997, when Clinton, a Democrat, nominated him for U.S. … [Read more...] about History suggests Trump will be tough to beat in 2020
Opinion
Bitter medicine of Perot’s 1992 campaign wouldn’t sell today
One of the most surreal moments in the history of American politics occurred July 17, 1992. Dallas billionaire H. Ross Perot appeared on a Friday night edition of the CNN talk show “Larry King Live” — the venue where, five months earlier, he had first invited volunteers to draft him as a presidential candidate — to explain why he suddenly decided to suspend his campaign. Along the way, King took a call from Cher, who lauded Perot for his inspirational message and urged him to reconsider his decision to drop out of the presidential race. The glitzy singer/actress offered to “give up everything I’m doing and come and be one of the (Perot) volunteers.” She told Perot, “You are the father of this patriot movement whether you like it or not.” A befuddled Perot told Cher not to give up her career for him and promised that he’d follow up with a private phone call. That moment illustrates, as well as any other you could name, how … [Read more...] about Bitter medicine of Perot’s 1992 campaign wouldn’t sell today
Corbyn’s grip on Labour
Telegraph View Follow 10 July 2019 • 6:00am With the party’s poll ratings plummeting to record low levels, panic is setting in Labour’s attempt to clarify its policy on Brexit drew plaudits from Remain-supporting MPs yesterday but left everyone else none the wiser. Evidently, the intention was to make it look as though the party was now supporting a second referendum and favoured staying in the EU after all. But as far as we can tell, Jeremy Corbyn backs neither of these options, even though he is being pushed towards both. Labour’s position now appears to be to support another referendum but only on any deal the Conservatives reach with the EU or in the event of a no-deal withdrawal. In such circumstances, the party’s official position... To continue reading this article Start your free trial of Premium Access all Premium articles Subscriber-only events Cancel any time Free for 30 days then only £2 … [Read more...] about Corbyn’s grip on Labour
William Barr’s shilling for Trump may have just hit a snag
Greg Sargent, The Washington Post Published 2:25 pm CDT, Tuesday, July 9, 2019 Attorney General William P. Barr on Capitol Hill on May 1. Attorney General William P. Barr on Capitol Hill on May 1. Photo: Washington Post Photo By Jahi Chikwendiu Photo: Washington Post Photo By Jahi Chikwendiu Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Image 1 of 1 Attorney General William P. Barr on Capitol Hill on May 1. Attorney General William P. Barr on Capitol Hill on May 1. Photo: Washington Post Photo By Jahi Chikwendiu William Barr's shilling for Trump may have just hit a snag 1 / 1 Back to Gallery President Donald Trump's allies have invested a great deal in an ongoing examination of the origins of the … [Read more...] about William Barr’s shilling for Trump may have just hit a snag
Epstein arrest is a worry for Donald Trump
Timothy L. O'Brien, Bloomberg Published 6:43 am PDT, Monday, July 8, 2019 FILE - This July 27, 2006 arrest file photo made available by the Palm Beach, Fla., Sheriff's Office shows Jeffrey Epstein. Epstein, a wealthy financier and convicted sex offender, has been arrested in New York on sex trafficking charges. Two law enforcement officials said Epstein was taken into federal custody Saturday, July 6, 2019, on charges involving sex-trafficking allegations that date to the 2000s. less FILE - This July 27, 2006 arrest file photo made available by the Palm Beach, Fla., Sheriff's Office shows Jeffrey Epstein. Epstein, a wealthy financier and convicted sex offender, has been arrested in New York ... more Photo: Palm Beach Sheriff's Office, AP Photo: Palm Beach Sheriff's Office, AP Image 1 of / 3 … [Read more...] about Epstein arrest is a worry for Donald Trump