We’ve made it. The final week of the 2021 NFL regular season. This slate of games is usually tricky to bet, as some teams are resting their starters and others won’t be playing their starters for the full 60 minutes. Thankfully, our experts know exactly how to play these games.
Each week, we’ll collect all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 18? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine , as their incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago.
Chiefs at Broncos
Time: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Chiefs -3, O/U 43.5 Current: Chiefs -11, O/U 45
If you had to pick one team to just win in Week 18, the Chiefs would certainly be a candidate. They suffered a loss to the Bengals last week, but could secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win on Saturday and a Titans loss this Sunday. Before you make your Week 18 NFL survivor picks, you need to see which team the SportsLine Projection Model is backing. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model likes the Chiefs this Sunday, but they are certainly not the only team the model is high on. To check out that list, head on over to SportsLine .
Cowboys at Eagles
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 45 Current: Cowboys -4.5, O/U 43.5
This is a weird NFC East matchup, but Pete Prisco likes Dallas to win and cover the spread: “How will these teams play this game? Both are in the playoffs, but seeding is at stake. The Cowboys haven’t looked good on offense in recent weeks, while the Eagles have found life behind their running game. Jerry Jones hinted the Cowboys will play to win. The Eagles have COVID concerns and might rest some players. Dallas will take it.”
To read Prisco’s breakdown of every Week 18 game, click here .
Bears at Vikings
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Vikings -6.5, O/U 44.5 Current: Vikings -5.5, O/U 44
CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones is on the Vikings this week since Kirk Cousins is back in the starting lineup; as he put it: “I’ll take the Vikings starters in this one.” To read his Week 18 picks along with his NFL Insider notebook, click here .
Bengals at Browns
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Browns -1.5, O/U 46 Current: Browns -6, O/U 38
Before you make any Bengals vs. Browns picks and predictions, you’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying. The model is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago, and enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Now, it has simulated Browns vs. Bengals 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in just over 60 percent of simulations. Head on over to SportsLine to see what the model is saying.
Packers at Lions
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Packers -11, O/U 47 Current: Packers -3, O/U 44.5
“How will the Packers play this? They could sit guys with the top seed wrapped up. They could play them little and then take them out. But it’s not like the Lions are loaded with top-level talent, either. Detroit looked bad last week, but it could have Jared Goff back this week. I think somehow the Lions hang around.”
NFL expert Pete Prisco is taking the Packers to cover the small spread. To read his breakdown of every Week 18 matchup, click here .
Colts at Jaguars
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open: Colts -8.5, O/U 44.5 Current: Colts -15, O/U 44
“On paper, this game seems like a total mismatch, but if there’s one team the Colts always seem to struggle against it’s the Jaguars. For one, the Colts haven’t won a game in Jacksonville since 2014. Also, let’s not forget that in their past 33 games, the Jaguars are:
- 2-2 against the Colts.
- 2-27 against everyone else.
“There are a lot of teams that will be rooting for the Jags to upset the Colts here. For one, a Colts loss would give the Ravens and Steelers hope heading into their season finale.
“One reason I hate picking Week 18 games is because every year, there always seems to be one crazy upset that no one saw coming. However, I don’t think we’re going to see that upset in this game.”
John Breech knows the Colts won’t mess around with an inferior opponent this time around. To read his Week 18 picks column, click here .
Steelers at Ravens
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open: Ravens -6, O/U 42.5 Current: Ravens -3.5, O/U 41
“The Steelers’ defense should go off against Baltimore’s inept offensive line, and with T.J. Watt chasing history, look out. He had 3.5 sacks, 12 pressures and six QB hits in the first meeting. The Ravens being without do-everything fullback Patrick Ricard will hurt in pass protection and their best blocking TE will probably miss the game as well. Baltimore has been incapable of producing big plays in the second half of the season, while the Ravens’ defense is the worst big-play group in the NFL, and they are beat up on the back end.
“The Steelers are a huge YAC team and Baltimore’s secondary doesn’t tackle and the Ravens have been the worst team in the NFL at giving up YAC. I saw serious moneyline potential in the Steelers last week, and I see it again here. They have way more blue-chip players going in this game than the Ravens do, and Baltimore has been brutal within the division this season.”
CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora knows what he’s talking about ( here’s a closer look ), especially when it comes to matchups that include his hometown Ravens. Additionally, he was right about taking the Steelers on the moneyline last week!
Titans at Texans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open: Titans -9.5, O/U 44 Current: Titans -10, O/U 42.5
“I think the Texans are gonna hang around. In fact I’m making it a best bet. They’ve been playing hard and tough. The Titans are the better team, there’s no doubt, but they went there and handled them the last time and they turned the ball over four times in that game — I think Tannehill did on his own. Look, they don’t like the Titans at all, they’ll hang around, the pressure is all on Tennessee and I think it will be a close game. So I’m going to take the 10. I don’t think the Texans win, but I’m going to take the 10 points.”
That’s Pete Prisco’s take from the Pick Six Podcast, where he, R.J. White and Will Brinson broke down all the games from a gambling perspective and gave out best bets on Friday — as they do every week. Give it a listen below and subscribe for great NFL content in your feed daily.
Washington at Giants
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Washington -4, O/U 41.5 Current: Washington -7, O/U 38
“Jake Fromm is likely to register his second start after Mike Glennon suffered a wrist injury, but as we saw against the Philadelphia Eagles a couple weeks ago, he’s no upgrade. Apart from the Giants not having a quarterback, it appears head coach Joe Judge has lost the locker room. After his weird postgame rant last week, players admitted they had no interest in listening to what he had to say.
“Washington is no contender either, but these players will still fight for Ron Rivera. It won’t take much to outscore the Giants. New York has the worst scoring offense in the NFL over the last two seasons (16.6 points per game). The Giants have won two games by double-digits while losing 14 games by double-digits with Judge as head coach. He’s won one more game than Pat Shurmur, who was fired after going 9-23 over his two seasons as New York’s head coach.”
That’s my take on this NFC East matchup. To read this week’s edition of #DajaniDimes, click here .
Panthers at Buccaneers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open: Buccaneers -16.5, O/U 43.5 Current: Buccaneers -8, O/U 41.5
“Carolina has not surpassed 20 points scored in its past three games. News flash: Notching 20-plus is essential to beating the Bucs. Count on Tom Brady and crew playing as Tampa Bay seeks to earn the No. 2 seed and the QB seeks to maintain his league stats leads. Though the offense has taken a hit with injuries, the snake-bitten secondary is growing healthy. The Panthers have stumbled in six in a row outright and are 0-3 with an average defeat margin of 21 points with Matt Rhule coaching against Bruce Arians.” — Mike Tierney on why the Buccaneers are part of his teaser picks for Week 18.
A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He’s crushed the NFL, going 347-291 on all NFL picks from 2016-20, returning $2,534 to $100 players. You can see all of his teaser picks for the week over at SportsLine .
Patriots at Dolphins
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open: Patriots -2, O/U 39.5 Current: Patriots -6, O/U 40
“The Patriots still have a chance at winning the AFC East and an outside shot at leaping back up as the No. 1 seed, but that will require a win on Sunday in Miami. So even with a playoff spot already clinched, New England will likely still be moving at full speed. Meanwhile, Miami’s seven-game winning streak did go out with a whimper last week as they managed just three points in a loss to Tennessee. When you looked a little deeper at the streak, the Dolphins were facing pretty soft competition, so it wasn’t too shocking to see a true playoff team take them down. That what they’ll see again in Week 18 in the Patriots and you can even make the case that Bill Belichick’s team is a tougher foe as they own the No. 2 defense in DVOA in the NFL. The Patriots are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.”
Tyler Sullivan is our resident Patriots expert, and he’s pretty high on them this week — making them one of his top five locks of the week. He’s 49-32-4 on his locks this year, so trailing him would be smart. To read his Week 18 column, click here .
Saints at Falcons
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Saints -3.5, O/U 42 Current: Saints -3.5, O/U 40
“The Saints are hoping to sneak into the playoffs with a win here and some help, but the Falcons have played Sean Payton and Co. tough over the years, including earning a win earlier this season against a much hotter Saints team. New Orleans won last week but it was not a great day for the offense against a Panthers defense that has struggled a ton in the second half. The Falcons defense impressed in limiting Josh Allen last week, and this should be a team eager to play spoiler versus a major rival and with a coaching staff that is safe heading into the offseason. I think anything above a three-point line is too much.” — R.J. White in his SuperContest picks for Week 18.
R.J. has cashed twice in the Westgate SuperContest, widely considered the toughest sports gambling competition in the world. He’s also hit on over 57% of his picks over the past six years combined. You can see all five of his Week 18 picks against the SuperContest lines and the Circa Sports Million lines by heading to SportsLine .
Jets at Bills
Time : Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ ( click here ) Open : Bills -17, O/U 45 Current : Bills -16, O/U 40.5
“The Bills can lock up the AFC East with a victory, while the Jets are playing out the string. The Bills will be much more focused in trying to lock up the division. Plus, they are the better team. This one should get ugly. Bills big.”
Pete Prisco has no problem laying the points with the Bills this week, and as you will see below, neither do any of our NFL experts. To read Prisco’s breakdown of every Week 18 matchup, click here .
Seahawks at Cardinals
Time : Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open : Cardinals -5.5, O/U 46.5 Current : Cardinals -6.5, O/U 48
If you’re looking for some spreads to throw in a parlay, you need to check out the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
We can tell you the model likes Seahawks +6.5, but you need to see what other games it’s high on. Head on over to SportsLine to check it out.
49ers at Rams
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Rams -6, O/U 44.5 Current: Rams -4.5, O/U 44.5
“Massive, massive game for both teams. The Rams can win the NFC West with a win over the 49ers, regardless of what happens with the Cardinals (although they can still win the division with a loss, if Arizona loses, too). The 49ers are in a similar position with even higher stakes: a win guarantees Kyle Shanahan’s team a playoff berth. San Francisco can still get in with a loss and a Saints loss, but that’s leaving way too much to chance. These teams could also simply tie to get what they want — a SF/LAR tie would end up with the Rams winning the division and the 49ers locking in a playoff spot regardless of what happens with the Cardinals and Saints. I wouldn’t bank on that being a plan, but it’s still possible. The 49ers have had the Rams’ number the last few years and I’m getting more than a field goal, which makes this a no-brainer for me.”
Will Brinson likes the 49ers in this important NFC West showdown. To read his breakdown of every Week 18 matchup, click here .
Chargers at Raiders
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV ( try for free ) Open: Chargers -2, O/U 47.5 Current: Chargers -3, O/U 50
Before locking in any picks of your own for Chargers vs. Raiders, make sure you see what SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has to say. A national sportswriter whose work appears in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He’s used his experience to crush the NFL, going 190-152 against the spread the past three seasons. Tierney is also an outstanding 28-15 on his last 43 picks involving the Chargers!
We can tell you he’s leaning Under on the total, but you need to check out his against the spread pick over at SportsLine .
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