Minnesota and Nebraska have seen a surge in new coronavirus cases as data shows that COVID-19 is on the rise across the United States with infection rates increasing even as states continue to lift their lockdown measures.
Data is showing that declining cases in hard-hit New York are driving the national trend downwards when more than a third of states are actually still seeing infections increase.
Despite the rising infections, the majority of states across the US have lifted lockdown restrictions or have announced plans to reopen – even as health experts warn of potential spikes in deaths.
The two Midwest states of Minnesota and Nebraska are showing alarming trends, according to data compiled by Axios comparing the seven day averages of new infections for each state over two weeks.
Minnesota, which has a total of 7,234 cases, has seen a 155 percent increase in new infections in the span of a week. With just over 6,000 cases, Nebraska has seen a 57 percent increase in new infections in a week.
Iowa, which has 10,400 infections, has seen a 42 percent increase in cases and Virginia’s infections, which are now at 20,200, have increased 31 percent.
At the other end of the scale, Arkansas and Wyoming are showing the most decline in cases. Arkansas, for example, has seen a 61 percent decline in new cases, bringing the total to nearly 3,500. Meanwhile, Wyoming has seen a 63 percent decline, bringing the total to nearly 600 cases.
Hard-hit New York, which has more than 321,000 cases, has seen a decrease of 38 percent in new infections.
Scroll down for full list of state-by-state breakdown
Trends over the past seven days show that places like Wyoming and Arkansas have seen a decrease in cases of more than 50%, and epicenter New York has seen a decrease of 38%. It also shows that over the past week, new hotspots are emerging, including Minnesota, which has seen an increase of 155% in cases, and Nebraska, where cases have risen by 57%
Data is showing that declining cases in hard-hit New York are driving the national trend downwards when more than a third of states are actually still seeing infections increase
As the majority of states lift restrictions and allow businesses to reopen, public health experts are warning that a failure to flatten the curve and drive down the infection rate in places could lead to a spike in deaths.
The experts have warned that apart from epicenter New York, data shows the rest of the US is moving in the wrong direction with new confirmed infections per day exceeding 20,000 and deaths per day are well over 1,000.
As of Wednesday, more than 74,000 people have now died from the coronavirus and there are more than 1.2 million infections across the country.
The densely packed New York area, consisting of about 20 million people, has been the hardest-hit corner of the country and accounts for at least one third of US deaths. As of Wednesday morning the state had more than 321,000 positive cases, and the number of deaths had risen to 19,977.
When the still locked-down area is included in infection tolls, new infections in the US appear to be declining, according to an AP analysis.
It found that the five-day rolling average for new cases has decreased from 9.3 per 100,000 people three weeks ago on April 13 to 8.6 on Monday.
But subtracting the New York area from the analysis changes the story. Without it, the rate of new cases in the US increased over the same period from 6.2 per 100,000 people to 7.5.
US testing for the virus has been expanded and that has probably contributed to the increasing rate of confirmed infections. But it doesn’t explain the entire increase, according to Dr. Zuo-Feng Zhang, a public health researcher at the University of California at Los Angeles.
‘This increase is not because of testing. It’s a real increase,’ he said.
Experts have warned that apart from epicenter New York, data shows the rest of the US is moving in the wrong direction with new confirmed infections per day exceeding 20,000 and deaths per day are well over 1,000
New York cases have been steadily declining with a total of 321,192 infections across the state
Nowhere in the US is completely reopen yet but many have partially reopened by allowing some businesses to resume, like curbside retail. Only 11 states remain closed, though they have shared plans for partial reopenings that include construction and manufacturing resuming, which will start over the next few weeks
Pockets of America far from New York City are seeing ominous trends.
Deaths in Iowa surged to a new daily high of 19 on Tuesday, and 730 workers at a single Tyson Foods pork plant tested positive.
On Monday, Shawnee County, home to Topeka, Kansas, reported a doubling of cases from last week on the same day that business restrictions began to ease.
Gallup, New Mexico, is under a strict lockdown until Thursday because of an outbreak, with guarded roadblocks to prevent travel in and out and a ban on more than two people in a vehicle.
A model from the University of Washington this week nearly doubled its projection of COVID-19 deaths in the US to around 134,000 through early August.
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute that created the projections, said the increase is largely because most states are expected to ease restrictions by next week.
Without stay-at-home orders and similar measures, Murray said ‘we would have had exponential growth, much larger epidemics and deaths in staggering numbers’.
But he said cooperation is waning with cellphone location data showing people are getting out more – even before their states reopen.
An ominous forecast from a University Of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School model has predicted there could be 350,000 deaths by the end of June if all states lift stay-at-home orders and allow businesses and restaurants to reopen.
In comparison, the model predicts that nearly 160,000 deaths will occur by the end of June if people maintain social distancing but all states only partially reopen by lifting emergency declarations, stay-at-home orders and school closures.
Data dedicated to tracking how fast COVID-19 is spreading across each state shows that all but seven states appear to have slowed the spread. Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota and Nebraska are the states that are yet to control the spread, according to the Rt.Live data
FULL REOPENING: The model shows there could be 350,000 coronavirus-related deaths and 7.7 million new infections if lockdown measures are lifted. There could also be 500,000 job losses and a 10.1 percent GDP decline if all states completely reopen, the model shows
PARTIAL REOPENING: In addition to 160,000 deaths, there could be 3.2 million infections if states partially reopen. There could also be 11.3 million job losses and a 10.7 percent drop in GDP if states only partially reopen
FULL LOCK DOWN: In addition to the deaths, 2.2 million new infections are predicted if lockdown restrictions that were in place on April 30 are maintained. The model forecasts a total of 18.6 million job losses by the end of June and a 11.6 percent drop in the GDP compared to 2019 if strict lockdowns across the US are maintained
A revised coronavirus model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has doubled its predicted US death toll to nearly 135,000 by August as social-distancing measures are increasingly relaxed across the country. The model assumes that mandates that are currently in place will stay in place until infections are minimized
The model’s best case scenario, which is still worse than the 100,000 fatalities President Donald Trump has suggested, predicts the death toll will climb to 115,000 in the next two months.
This scenario accounts for people still choosing to social distance and each state maintaining the lockdown measures that were in place until April 30 before the majority of states started partially reopening.
According to the model, there could be 7.7 million infections across the country by the end of June if all states reopen, 3.2 million if states partially reopen and 2.2 million if lockdown restrictions are maintained.
In addition to death and infection predictions, the Wharton model also forecasts the economic effects of states choosing to reopen.
The model forecasts a total of 18.6 million job losses by the end of June and a 11.6 percent drop in the GDP compared to 2019 if strict lockdowns across the US are maintained.
In comparison, there could be 11.3 million job losses and a 10.7 percent drop in GDP if states only partially reopen and 500,000 job losses and a 10.1 percent GDP decline if all completely reopen.
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks as the coronavirus pandemic caused business to close. The official unemployment rate for April is due to be released on Friday and economists are predicting it could be as high as 20 percent.
Data dedicated to tracking how fast COVID-19 is spreading across each state shows that all but seven states appear to have slowed the spread.
According to the Rt.Live data, those include, Kentucky, which has 5,822 cases and 275 deaths; Wisconsin with 8,566 cases and 353 deaths; South Dakota with 2,780 cases and 29 deaths; Iowa with 10,392 cases and 219 deaths; Kansas with 5,671 cases and 161 deaths; Minnesota with 8,590 cases and 485 deaths; and Nebraska, which currently has 6,374 cases and 78 deaths.
Rt.Live uses current infection data to track the reproduction rate of the virus in each state over time.
The site uses an Rt – or effective reproduction – metric, which shows the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person.
The data indicates the virus will spread quickly if the Rt is above 1.0. If the Rt falls below 1.0 in a state, it means the virus is showing signs of slowing down.
The Rt model shows the most likely Rt value for each day and the interval of values that Rt might actually be.
This can vary for states depending on the amount of data available and if they have fewer cases than other states.
Here is a breakdown of where each state is with current lockdown measures, total number of cases and deaths and their reproduction rate of COVID-19:
Partially reopening
Alabama
Cases: 8,454 – Deaths: 337
Alabama’s current infection spread rate is 0.88, which means it is among the states that appears to have managed to transmission of the virus.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey announced the state had lifted a stay-home order and replaced it with a ‘safer-at-home order’ effective from April 30. People are encouraged, but are no longer required, to stay home. The updated order expires May 15.
Alabama’s employers and retail stores are allowed to reopen from April 30 at a reduced 50 percent capacity. Beaches will reopen but residents have to adhere to social distancing, including not gathering in groups of 10 or more.
High risk business including theaters, night clubs, fitness centers, barber shops, hair and nail salons will remain closed. Bars and restaurants can only have takeaway or curbside pickup.
Alabama’s current infection spread rate is 0.88, which means it is among the states that appears to have managed to transmission of the virus. The state, which has partially reopened, has 8,454 cases and 337 deaths
Alaska
Cases: 371 – Deaths: 9
Alaska’s current secondary rate of infection is at 0.83, which is below the 1.0 Rt rate where cases start to slow. It is among the states that appear to have stopped the spread but has a higher variable rate (red shaded area) – meaning that it is not completely certain it has stopped the spread.
Starting April 24, officials in Alaska allowed dine-in service at restaurants and reopening of retailers, personal care services and other businesses, with limitations.
Under the new rules, restaurants will reopen but are limited to 25 percent capacity and there must be 10 feet between tables and only family members can be seated at the same table.
Salons in Alaska may only accept customers by appointment.
The state in April decided there would be no in-person classes for K-12 students for the rest of the academic year.
Alaska’s current secondary rate of infection is at 0.83, which is below the 1.0 Rt rate where cases start to slow. It is among the states that appear to have stopped the spread but has a higher variable rate (red shaded area) – meaning that it’s not completely certain it has lowered the spread
Arizona
Cases 9,707 – Deaths 426
Arizona appears to have limited the spread of coronavirus with a 0.91 secondary infection rate. Infections have been increasing in the state throughout the pandemic.
Small retailers reopened May 4 with curbside, delivery or appointment-based services.
They will be allowed to welcome customers inside with social distancing starting May 8.
Gov. Doug Ducey otherwise extended his stay-home order until May 15.
He’s working with restaurants on how to eventually reopen dining rooms safely, but there’s no set timetable.
Arizona appears to have limited the spread of coronavirus with a 0.91 secondary infection rate. Infections have been increasing in the state throughout the pandemic.
Arkansas
Cases: 3,525 – Deaths: 83
Arkansas has lowered the spread of coronavirus and currently has a 0.86 rate of secondary infection. The number of infections in the state appear to have decreased rapidly since peaking about two weeks ago.
The state is one of the few that did not issue a state-wide stay-at-home order but did place some restrictions on businesses to slow the spread.
As the state reopens, restaurants can open for limited dine-in services from May 1 but can only operate at a third of its normal capacity.
Gyms and indoor recreational facilities can resume operations from April 30. Restrictions can lift on hair salons and barber shops on May 1.
State parks can reopen from May 1.
Arkansas has lowered the spread of coronavirus and currently has a 0.86 rate of secondary infection. The number of infections in the state appear to have decreased rapidly since peaking about two weeks ago
California
Cases: 58,685 – Deaths: 2,388
California is one of the few states that appears to have stopped the spread of the virus, according to data.
The state has a secondary infection rate of 0.84. California was among the first to go into lockdown with some of the strictest measures in the US.
As the state reopens, there is still an indefinite stay-at-home order and gatherings in a single room or place are prohibited.
Some businesses in the state will receive permission to reopen as early May 8. Clothing stores, sporting goods, florists and other retailers to resume operations with curbside pickup.
Nonessential businesses are limited to minimum operations or remote work. Dining in at restaurants and office reopenings are still prohibited.
Essential surgeries are now being allowed in California.
Six counties in the Bay Area, including San Francisco, have extended its shelter-in-place order until mid-May but will allow construction to restart. Three Northern California counties have already reopened in defiance of state orders.
California is one of the few states that appears to have stopped the spread of the virus, according to data. The state has a secondary infection rate of 0.84. California was among the first to go into lockdown with some of the strictest measures in the US. Daily infection tolls are still increasing sporadically
Colorado
Cases 17,367 – Deaths 903
Colorado has managed to slow the spread of the virus with a 0.88 secondary infection rate. Infections across the state have been gradually increasing throughout the pandemic.
The state was among the first to lift restrictions with elective surgeries and retail curbside delivery beginning on April 27. Hair salons, dental offices and tattoo shops could also reopen that date with restrictions.
Other retail was allowed to reopen from May 4 with social distancing restrictions. Large workplaces could reopen on May 4 at 50% capacity.
Restaurants and bars are still limited to takeout only.
The state’s stay-at-home order expired April 26 but residents are still urged to stay home where possible.
Colorado has managed to slow the spread of the virus with a 0.88 secondary infection rate. Infections across the state have been gradually increasing throughout the pandemic
Florida
Cases: 37,439 – Deaths: 1,471
Florida is among the states that appear to have slowed the spread of coronavirus with a secondary infection rate of 0.89. Infections have been steadily declining since peaking in early April.
It comes as the state started reopen some businesses on May 4 except for in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.
Restaurants can now offer outdoor seating six-feet between tables and indoor seating at 25% capacity.
Retail can operate at 25% capacity.
Bars, gyms, movie theaters and personal services – like hair salons – are to remain closed.
Some beaches and parks reopened from April 17 if it could be done safely.
Florida is among the states that appear to have slowed the spread of coronavirus with a secondary infection rate of 0.89. Infections have been steadily declining since peaking in early April
Georgia
Cases: 30,527 – Deaths: 1,302
Georgia, which became a lightning rod for criticism in the national debate over reopening, appears to have slowed the spread, according to Rt data.
The state currently has a secondary infection rate of 0.82, which essentially means the virus has stopped spreading. Infections appear to be slowly declining in the state.
Georgia is continuing on its aggressive course to reopening after the statewide shelter-at-home order expired.
Gyms, hair salons, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors started reopening from April 24 as long as owners followed strict social-distancing and hygiene requirements.
Elective medical procedures can also resume. Movie theaters may resume selling tickets and restaurants limited to takeout orders can return to limited dine-in service from April 27.
At-risk people are urged to remain home until May 13.
Bars, live performance venues and amusement parks will remain closed. Religious institutions are still urged to hold drive-thru or online services for now.
Georgia, which became a lightning rod for criticism in the national debate over reopening, appears to have slowed the spread with a secondary infection rate of 0.82. Infections appear to be slowly declining in the state
Idaho
Cases: 2,127 – Deaths: 65
Idaho appears to have slowed the spread of coronavirus with a 0.81 secondary infection rate. Infections also appear to have declined since cases peaked in early April.
As the state starts reopening, some business are allowed to offer curbside pick up, drive in and drive thru services.
Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.
Child-care centers were able to reopen May 1 under the first phase of the reopening plan. Churches can reopen, with distancing and sanitation rules. Bars, gyms, salons, movie theaters and sporting venues remain closed.
Idaho appears to have slowed the spread of coronavirus with a 0.81 secondary infection rate. Infections also appear to have declined since cases peaked in early April
Illinois
Cases: 65,962 – Deaths: 2,838
Illinois appears to have slowed the spread with a secondary infection rate of 0.90.
The number of infections have been increasing across the state since the pandemic began.
The state’s stay-at-home order is currently in place until at least May 30, which includes school and nonessential business closures.
From May 1, nonessential businesses could fill phone and online orders.
Some nonelective surgeries may resume, and many state parks are open for hiking and fishing. Face-coverings are mandatory for public places where social distance can´t be maintained.
Illinois appears to have slowed the spread with a secondary infection rate of 0.90. The number of infections have been increasing across the state since the pandemic began
Iowa
Cases: 10,404 – Deaths: 219
Iowa is among the few states that are yet to stop the spread of the virus. The state currently has a secondary infection rate of 1.03, which means an average of one person is being infected by a COVID positive person.
Infections appear to have increased steadily throughout the pandemic.
After loosening business restrictions across most counties, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds said that virus trends will dictate how soon she does the same in remaining counties, which include urban areas.
Iowa is among the states that had no stay-at-home order but some restrictions were imposed to stop the spread.
From May 1, restaurants can open at 50 percent capacity but no more than six people at one table.
Malls, fitness centers, libraries and retail stores can open at 50 percent capacity.
Horse and dog racing tracks can reopen with no spectators.
All other businesses remain closed through May 15.
Iowa is among the few states that are yet to stop the spread of the virus. The state currently has a secondary infection rate of 1.03, which means an average of one person is being infected by a COVID positive person. Infections appear to have increased steadily throughout the pandemic
Indiana
Cases: 21,872 – Deaths: 1,261
Indiana appears to have limited the spread of COVID-19, according to the data. Infections have been on the rise in the state since March.
The stay-home order was lifted May 4 for most of the state, while Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb allowed more manufacturers and retailers to reopen.
In-person restaurant dining and hair salons remain closed for another week.
Gyms, movie theaters, bars and casinos remain closed until at least late May.
Holcomb says he hopes to restart nearly all activities by July 4.
Indiana appears to have limited the spread of COVID-19, according to the data. Infections have been on the rise in the state since March.
Kentucky
Cases: 5,822 – Deaths: 275
Kentucky is yet to curb the spread of the virus, according to Rt data. The state currently has a 1.0 Rt secondary infection rate. Infections do appear to be declining in the state.
Kentucky has no stay-at-home order but anyone going out in public will have to wear a mask from May 11.
Dentists, chiropractors, optometrists were allowed to start taking non-urgent patients from April 27. Prior to that, those services were only allowed to take urgent appointments.
Outpatient/ambulatory surgery and invasive procedures can begin May 7. Elective and non-urgent procedures can resume at 50 percent capacity from May 13.
Manufacturing, construction, car dealerships and professional services can start May 11 at 50% capacity.
Retail and houses of worship can begin May 20. Barber shops and salons can reopen from May 25.
Restaurants and bars can likely reopen for dining in June.
Kentucky is yet to curb the spread of the virus, according to Rt data. The state currently has a 1.0 Rt secondary infection rate. Infections do appear to be declining in the state
Louisiana
Cases: 29,996 – Deaths: 2,115
Louisiana has stopped the spread of the virus, according to the Rt data with a secondary infection rate of 0.78 – one of the lowest in the country. Infections have also been decreasing after spiking in early April.
At the beginning of the outbreak, Louisiana was expected to becoming an emerging hotspot given its sudden increase in infections and deaths.
As the state slowly lifts its strict lockdown measures, bars and restaurants are limited to take-out only but from May 1 they will be allowed to let customers eat in outdoor areas as long as there’s no table service.
Malls can also start operating curbside retail from May 1.
The state’s stay-at-home order has been extended until May 15 and there’s a 10 person limit on gatherings.
Louisiana has stopped the spread of the virus, according to the Rt data with a secondary infection rate of 0.78 – one of the lowest in the country. Infections have also been decreasing after spiking in early April
Maine
Cases: 1,254 – Deaths: 61
Maine appears to have limited the spread of coronavirus with a secondary infection rate of 0.95. Infections across the state have been slowly decreasing.
With a safer-at-home order lasting through May, restrictions were lifted May 1 on golf courses, many state parks and visits to dentists, barbers and hairdressers.
Restrictions are set to lift for restaurants, lodging and camping June 1.
Maine appears to have limited the spread of coronavirus with a secondary infection rate of 0.95. Infections across the state have been slowly decreasing
Michigan
Cases: 45,179 – Deaths: 4,256
Michigan has managed to stop the spread of coronavirus, according to Rt.Live data. The state has a 0.74 secondary infection rate, which is currently the lowest in the country. Cases in the state have been decreasing after peaking in early April.
The state’s stay-at-home order is in place until May 15.
Garden stores, nurseries, lawn-care, pest-control and landscaping operations were allowed to resume business from April 24.
The construction industry can return to work on May 7.
Nonessential businesses are still limited to minimum operations or remote work. Retailers that do not sell necessary supplies can reopen for curbside pickup and delivery.
Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.
Michigan has managed to stop the spread of coronavirus, according to Rt.Live data. The state has a 0.74 secondary infection rate, which is currently the lowest in the country. Cases in the state have been decreasing after peaking in early April