There is a huge 16.2% difference between conference leaders. The Baltimore Ravens lead with a 46.7 percent chance of winning the AFC and the New England Patriots are at 30.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Patriots chances are down from 50.2 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Steelers average the #6 most wins and the Titans average the #7 so the difference (0.04 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 3 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURES PROJ WINS WIN DIV PLAYOFF WIN CONF ODDS WIN CONF SIM
Baltimore Ravens 13.1 99.4% 100.0% 6/5 (45.5%) 46.7%
New England Patriots 13.1 97.1% 100.0% 2/1 (33.3%) 30.5%
Kansas City Chiefs 10.6 99.5% 99.5% 7/2 (22.2%) 13.3%
Houston Texans 10.2 70.9% 92.3% 10/1 (9.1%) 3.8%
Buffalo Bills 10.8 2.9% 94.2% 20/1 (4.8%) 3.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.0 0.6% 58.1% 40/1 (2.4%) 1.3%
Tennessee Titans 9.0 27.0% 42.4% 40/1 (2.4%) 1.2%
Indianapolis Colts 7.9 2.1% 5.6% 100/1 (1%) 0.1%
Oakland Raiders 7.6 0.5% 5.5% 150/1 (0.7%) —
Cleveland Browns 7.2 0.0% 1.8% 250/1 (0.4%) —
Los Angeles Chargers 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 2500/1 —
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.7 0.0% 0.1% 5000/1 —
Denver Broncos 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 5000/1 —
New York Jets 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 5000/1 —
Miami Dolphins 4.2 0.0% 0.0% — —
Cincinnati Bengals 2.3 0.0% 0.0% — —

There is a very large 14.6% difference between the Saints and the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers at 25.3% trails the New Orleans Saints at 39.9%. The difference between these teams is widening as the 49ers chances are down from 36.6 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #6 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINS WIN DIV PLAYOFF WIN CONF ODDS WIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints 12.7 100.0% 100.0% 5/4 (44.4%) 39.9%
San Francisco 49ers 12.4 43.8% 99.6% 4/1 (20%) 25.3%
Seattle Seahawks 12.2 55.8% 99.5% 4/1 (20%) 15.0%
Minnesota Vikings 10.5 36.0% 80.5% 10/1 (9.1%) 7.0%
Green Bay Packers 11.2 63.9% 87.8% 5/1 (16.7%) 4.9%
Dallas Cowboys 8.2 66.1% 66.1% 20/1 (4.8%) 4.0%
Los Angeles Rams 9.1 0.4% 29.1% 50/1 (2%) 2.3%
Philadelphia Eagles 7.6 33.9% 33.9% 30/1 (3.2%) 1.6%
Chicago Bears 7.7 0.2% 3.2% 150/1 (0.7%) —
Washington Redskins 4.2 0.1% 0.1% 5000/1 —
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.0 0.0% 0.1% 2500/1 —
Carolina Panthers 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 2500/1 —
Detroit Lions 5.1 0.0% 0.0% — —
Atlanta Falcons 4.7 0.0% 0.0% — —
Arizona Cardinals 4.5 0.0% 0.0% — —
New York Giants 3.8 0.0% 0.0% — —

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the championship, but only 7 really do with at least a two percent chance. At the top, the Ravens have a significant 10.1 percentage point lead over the Saints. At the bottom of the contenders list, 4.3 percentage points separate the Chiefs from the Vikings.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERS ODDS ODDS% SIM% TREND
Baltimore Ravens 3/1 25.0% 29.3% UP
New Orleans Saints 4/1 20.0% 19.2% —
New England Patriots 9/2 18.2% 16.4% DOWN
San Francisco 49ers 8/1 11.1% 12.1% DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs 8/1 11.1% 7.0% DOWN
Seattle Seahawks 8/1 11.1% 5.5% UP
Minnesota Vikings 20/1 4.8% 2.7% DOWN
Green Bay Packers 12/1 7.7% 1.5% DOWN
Houston Texans 20/1 4.8% 1.4% DOWN
Dallas Cowboys 40/1 2.4% 1.4% DOWN
Buffalo Bills 40/1 2.4% 1.1% —