The difference at the top of the conference is small at 2.4%. The New England Patriots at 39% trails the Baltimore Ravens at 41.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Patriots chances are down from 55.8 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only -0.2 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 3 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AFC FUTURES PROJ WINS WIN DIV PLAYOFF WIN CONF ODDS WIN CONF SIM
Baltimore Ravens 12.8 99.3% 99.9% 5/4 (44.4%) 41.5%
New England Patriots 13.8 99.2% 100.0% 3/1 (25%) 39.0%
Kansas City Chiefs 10.1 92.1% 93.9% 9/2 (18.2%) 10.1%
Buffalo Bills 10.8 0.8% 96.4% 40/1 (2.4%) 3.0%
Houston Texans 9.6 55.3% 77.8% 20/1 (4.8%) 2.9%
Tennessee Titans 8.3 18.4% 29.0% 50/1 (2%) 1.1%
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 26.3% 35.3% 50/1 (2%) 1.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.3 0.6% 33.4% 50/1 (2%) 0.8%
Cleveland Browns 7.7 0.1% 15.3% 50/1 (2%) 0.6%
Oakland Raiders 8.0 7.2% 16.3% 30/1 (3.2%) 0.1%
Los Angeles Chargers 6.8 0.7% 1.3% 250/1 (0.4%) —
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.3 0.1% 0.9% 250/1 (0.4%) —
New York Jets 6.1 0.0% 0.2% 500/1 (0.2%) —
Denver Broncos 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 5000/1 —
Miami Dolphins 3.3 0.0% 0.0% — —
Cincinnati Bengals 1.6 0.0% 0.0% — —

There is a large 8.9% difference between the Saints and the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers at 29.9% trails the New Orleans Saints at 38.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The 49ers chances are down from 37.1 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Cowboys average the #5 most wins and the Eagles average the #7 most so the difference (-0.14 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. This is a very top heavy conference with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINS WIN DIV PLAYOFF WIN CONF ODDS WIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints 12.7 100.0% 100.0% 3/2 (40%) 38.8%
San Francisco 49ers 12.7 63.7% 99.9% 5/2 (28.6%) 29.9%
Seattle Seahawks 11.6 35.9% 95.0% 6/1 (14.3%) 10.6%
Minnesota Vikings 10.9 55.4% 95.6% 6/1 (14.3%) 9.8%
Dallas Cowboys 8.3 51.8% 52.1% 12/1 (7.7%) 3.5%
Green Bay Packers 10.7 44.0% 79.8% 9/1 (10%) 3.5%
Philadelphia Eagles 8.4 48.2% 48.8% 40/1 (2.4%) 2.3%
Los Angeles Rams 8.6 0.3% 21.5% 50/1 (2%) 1.4%
Chicago Bears 7.9 0.6% 6.5% 100/1 (1%) 0.2%
Carolina Panthers 7.3 0.0% 0.6% 250/1 (0.4%) —
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.3 0.0% 0.2% 5000/1 —
Detroit Lions 5.3 0.0% 0.0% — —
Arizona Cardinals 5.1 0.0% 0.0% — —
Atlanta Falcons 4.7 0.0% 0.0% — —
New York Giants 4.2 0.0% 0.0% — —
Washington Redskins 3.4 0.0% 0.0% — —

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season for 5 teams. There are only 7 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Patriots have a 22.6 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 3.1 percentage points behind the Ravens. The separation between the team with the #5 highest chances vs the #7 highest is 1.5 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERS ODDS ODDS% SIM% TREND
Baltimore Ravens 3/1 25.0% 25.7% —
New England Patriots 7/2 22.2% 22.6% DOWN
New Orleans Saints 4/1 20.0% 18.8% —
San Francisco 49ers 7/1 12.5% 13.7% DOWN
Kansas City Chiefs 10/1 9.1% 5.0% DOWN
Minnesota Vikings 12/1 7.7% 3.6% —
Seattle Seahawks 12/1 7.7% 3.5% —
Dallas Cowboys 25/1 3.8% 1.4% DOWN
Buffalo Bills 80/1 1.2% 1.1% UP
Houston Texans 40/1 2.4% 1.1% DOWN
Green Bay Packers 18/1 5.3% 1.0% DOWN