Postcard-Perfect Weather On Tap Today
Dorian is larger, but wind speeds have dropped off. The risk of coastal flooding is significant, especially over the Carolinas.
Today will be much too nice to work (hard) with blue sky and very little wind. Doppler radar will be freckled with T-storms tomorrow; another batch of showery rain arrives Saturday. Sunday looks a little brighter and
A warm, thundery start to next week gives way to another cool front. I suspect that’s a trend. Ah September, a time of shorts and sweatshirts.
EF-1 Tornado Confirmed Near Mound Monday Evening. I did a live update on WCCO Radio from my basement after seeing the Doppler signature – first time for everything. WCCO-TV reports: “...In Minnetrista, which is just east of Watertown, city officials say they are assessing the damage after the tornado moved through the area late Monday evening. The National Weather Service initially reported the radar-indicated tornado shortly after 10 p.m. along County Road 15 just east of County Road 92. When officers arrived in the area, they saw significant tree damage and some structural damage along a line from CR 92 east along CR 15 – as well as along some connecting side streets up to Minnetonka Sportsmen Club, located at 7480 County Rd 15 in Mound…”
“Bigger Picture, It’s Climate Change”. Great Lakes Flood Ravages Homes and Roads. Lakes…flooding? Yep. Here’s a clip from The Guardian: “…The havoc wreaked on communities bordering the Great Lakes is a result of their water level steadily rising over the last five years and spiking to record levels this spring and summer. In 2019, the lakes’ depths ranged from 14in to nearly 3ft above long-term averages, according to data from the US army corps of engineers. In June, water in the Lakes St Clair, Ontario, Superior and Erie set records for monthly mean levels, while Lake Michigan-Huron rose to 1in from its recorded peak. That is leading to widespread damage in coastal cities, eroded shorelines and beaches and many other issues. The record levels come just five years after the lakes experienced historically low levels in 2014, and climate scientists say it is clear what’s fueling the drastic swing: the Earth’s rising temperatures…”
Photo credit: “There’s no doubt that we are in a region where climate change is having an impact,’ said Richard B Rood, a University of Michigan professor.” Photograph: Colter Peterson/AP.
What To Do After a Hurricane. I wrote a story for Medium underscoring a sad point: many people survive the hurricane, only to perish in the aftermath, days or even weeks/months after the storm strikes. Here’s an excerpt from Medium: “Technological breakthroughs like weather satellites and computer models have lowered the death toll over time, but there are harrowing exceptions. In spite of timely warnings, Hurricane Katrina (2005) left 1,833 dead and Hurricane Maria (2017) killed 2,981 people. It may be counterintuitive, but most of the deaths occurred days or even weeks after the hurricane struck. “Statistics now show that more people are being killed or injured after the storm rather than during it” says meteorologist Dennis Feltgen, Communications & Public Affairs Officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. How is that possible? As the graphic above explains, hurricane survivors are often victims of heart failure and other medical maladies, vehicle accidents, fires and electrocution. It’s very possible to survive the storm, but not the aftermath…”
Storm Leaves Bahamas Devastated: Climate Nexus has links and headlines: “Hurricane Dorian has created a “historic tragedy” in the Bahamas, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said this Monday, after the storm stalled over the islands for 24 hours over the weekend. Grand Bahama’s airport was submerged nearly 6 feet underwater while water reached up to the second floor of buildings, leading to a surge in distress messages from people trapped in buildings or on roofs attempting to escape rising floodwaters. While the storm has moved on from the islands, officials say residents could face heavy rains and storm surge throughout this evening.” (AP, Washington Post $, BBC, The Guardian)
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Tuesday morning, September 3rd, 2019:
- Hurricane Dorian continues to sit in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, bringing dangerous winds and storm surge flooding to Grand Bahama Island, but is slowly starting to gain some forward momentum. Outer rain bands from Dorian are also impacting portions of Florida.
- As of the 10 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian had sustained winds of 115 mph with wind gusts to 140 mph. The system was moving to the northwest at 1 mph.
- The current track of Dorian has the system moving along, but just offshore, the Southeast U.S. Coast over the next couple days, with the closest approach to land occurring as it passes near the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday.
- Even through this system will mainly remain offshore, it is still expected to bring the potential of hurricane-force winds, storm surge flooding of 4-7 feet around high tide, and heavy rain along with it. The greatest impacts will be found along the coast, but the heavy rain and higher wind threat could extend inland, especially from Florida into the Carolinas.
- Several mandatory evacuations are in place from Florida to North Carolina ahead of Dorian, and contraflow of I-16 in Georgia is in place from Savannah to Dublin. Here are links to state emergency management offices, which have the latest on any evacuations and shelters that are in place:
Dorian As Of Tuesday Morning. The Bahamas continues to be battered by Hurricane Dorian this morning, with the eyewall (where the strongest winds are) impacting areas like Grand Bahama Island and the Abacos for at least the past 36-48 hours. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, in the 28 hours leading up to 8 AM EDT this morning, Dorian had only moved about 30 miles. Meanwhile, outer rain bands from Dorian are impacting portions of Florida. The storm has remained basically stationary over the past 18 or so hours as steering currents have collapsed, and this morning the storm is slowly inching along, only moving northwest at 1 mph. As of the 10 AM ET update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Dorian had sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane. The center of Dorian was located 45 miles north of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, or 100 miles east-northeast of West Palm Beach, FL. According to the NHC, hurricane force winds extended out 45 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm force winds extending out 160 miles.
Dorian Track. Dorian will finally start to get some forward momentum over the next few days as atmospheric conditions develop that will allow it to do so. It will move in a northwest or north-northwest motion through the day today, turning more to the north tomorrow, and then the north-northeast on Thursday with forward momentum gradually increasing. This will, unfortunately, continue to bring devastating weather conditions to the northwestern Bahamas today. On this track, Dorian will move close to the eastern Florida coast through Wednesday evening, move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts as we head toward Wednesday Night and Thursday, and then near or even potentially over portions of the North Carolina coast late Thursday into Friday. This track will continue to be closely monitored over the next few days, as any further movement to the west than is forecast would bring the core of Dorian closer to, if not over, the coastline of the Southeast. Dorian will continue to bring the threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding.
Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Due to the continued and expected impacts of Dorian in the Bahamas and the Southeast, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are in place this morning. In coastal areas, they are in place for the following areas:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Across land areas, the following alerts are in place:
- Hurricane Warnings: Vero Beach & Daytona Beach (FL)
- Hurricane Watches: Charleston (SC), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville & West Palm Beach (FL)
- Tropical Storm Warnings: Jacksonville, Orlando, West Palm Beach (FL)
- Tropical Storm Watches: Fort Lauderdale (FL)
You can read hurricane local statements from local National Weather Service offices, which give a better idea of what local officials are expecting with Dorian: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Hurricane%20Local%20Statement
Summary Of Threats. We will be watching the potential for heavy/flooding rains, storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and tornadoes with Dorian across portions of the Southeast. Above is a quick summary of where some of the worst conditions for those first three threats will be through the middle of the week, with more detailed information below.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Timing. This graphic gives a good timing as to when winds could start to reach tropical storm force (39+ mph) with Dorian, which will start to make last minute preparations difficult ahead of the storm. Tropical storm force winds could start to impact portions of Georgia tonight, reaching portions of South Carolina Wednesday and North Carolina Wednesday night.
Potential Peak Wind Gusts. The good news is – for the most part – that the core of the strongest winds will remain offshore over the next few days. The best potential for hurricane-force wind gusts (74+ mph) will be along and near the coast, especially from Port St. Lucie to just south of Jacksonville, and from the Savannah area into the Outer Banks. How close these hurricane-force winds make it to the coast will depend on the overall track of the system.
Storm Surge Threat
Above images are from the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment.
Dangerous Storm Surge. As water pushes toward the East Coast, there will be the threat of a dangerous surge of water inland to areas that are typically dry, especially if the surge of water coincides with high tide. The surge of water will also come with large waves and could be in advance of the strong winds anticipated with Dorian. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Dorian in the eastern United States:
Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River SC…4 to 7 ft
Storm surge of 10-15 feet above normal tide levels will continue to be possible today on Grand Bahama Island, with water levels slowly going down across the Abaco Islands.
Storm Surge Watches And Warnings. Due to the potential of storm surge flooding, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Latana, FL, to the Savannah River. Storm Surge Watches are also in place from north of Deerfield Beach, FL, to south of Lantana, FL, as well as from the Savannah River to South Santee River, SC. These will likely expand northward over the next few days.
Heavy Rain And Flooding Threat
Rain Potential. Dorian will continue to produce heavy rain as it passes near the Southeast over the next few days. The heaviest amounts in the United States are currently expected in the Coastal Carolinas (especially in the Outer Banks), where some 10-15” totals are possible. This will cause the potential of life-threatening flash flooding. Here’s a breakdown of potential rainfall amounts from the NHC through Friday:
Northwestern Bahamas…Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches.
Flash Flooding Potential. This heavy rain will cause the potential of flash flooding along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts over the next few days. The greatest threat of flooding today and tonight will be along the eastern Florida Coast, moving north along portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coast Wednesday and Wednesday Night, and then across portions of the eastern Carolinas on Thursday.
Dorian Summary. Dorian will slowly start to push away from the northwestern Bahamas today, taking a course that will bring it around the southeast bend of the United States over the next few days. On the current track, the closest approach it could make to a landfall in the U.S. would be in the Outer Banks. However, any deviation to the west could bring the center a lot closer to the Southeast Coast. Even with Dorian remaining offshore, hurricane-force winds, storm surge flooding, and heavy rain will be possible in the Southeast, especially along the coast. We will continue to track this storm over the next several days.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. We are also tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, which is expected to form into a tropical depression later today in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and then a tropical storm tonight. The system will move to the west and west-northwest over the next couple of days, making landfall in northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital. This system is expected to bring rainfall of 6-12” with isolated 15” amounts across northeastern Mexico with the highest amounts expected in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. While this system will make landfall in Mexico, rainfall amounts of at least 2-4” are possible through Friday in southern Texas in relation to this system.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix.
Another update went out last night…
Praedictix Intermediate Briefing: Issued Tuesday evening, September 3, 2019. Key points:
* After stalling over the northern Bahamas for the better part of 36 hours and leaving behind historic levels of destruction on Abaco Island and Grand Bahama, Hurricane Dorian is finally tracking toward the northwest, buffeting the east central coastline of Florida with winds of 50-70 mph overnight. A storm surge of 4-7 feet is likely at high tide from near Ft. Pierce north to Daytona Beach, creating significant coastal flooding and beach erosion.
* Dorian is weaker, packing sustained winds of 110 mph, but also a much larger storm with a larger potential for storm surge damage as it approaches coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
* Weather models, including ECMWF (European) bring the dangerous eyewall of Dorian (strongest winds and highest storm surge) close the Carolina coast by Thursday. A storm surge over 6 feet is expected from near Charleston to Myrtle Beach, and along the southern sections of North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
* Heavy rain will trigger flash flooding from the Atlantic coastline of Florida (tonight and Wednesday morning) into the Carolinas Thursday, with as much as 5-10″ of rainfall.
* Hurricane Warnings extend coastal Georgia to Wilmington, North Carolina, with Hurricane Watches for the Outer Banks and a Tropical Storm Watch for Virginia’s Tidewater region.
* Dorian is still a very dangerous storm, and facilities from Jacksonville and Hilton Head to Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington should prepare for significant flooding.
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK…NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD
Moderate to High Confidence for Dorian’s Track. The storm will accelerate as it reaches the Carolina coast by Thursday, coming very close to barrier islands. If the eyewall, the donut of severe winds/surf surrounding the calm eye, reaches land damage will be significant, even if Dorian is a Category 1-2 storm.
Timing Dorian’s Arrival. Weather conditions rapidly deteriorate on Wednesday from St. Augustine, Florida to Savannah and Hilton Head. Thursday looks like the worst day for the Carolina coast, with tropical-storm force winds expected from Virginia’s Tidewater to Long Island (Friday morning) and Cape Cod (Friday afternoon and evening).
Swath of Hurricane-Force Winds. ECMWF (European guidance) brings hurricane-force winds ashore from Savannah and Hilton Head to Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and the Outer Banks. Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion is likely from a combination of high winds and storm surge.
Most Dangerous Storm Surge. CERA (Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment) predicts a 6-10 foot surge from near Charleston to Myrtle Beach, and from Morehead City into the Outer Banks. Dorian’s surge, a sudden rise in sea level, will be magnified around high tide, when conditions will be worst.
A Close Call for Charleston? NOAA’s high resolution hurricane model (HWRF) brings Dorian’s eyewall very close to Charleston and Myrtle Beach during the day on Thursday, which will be the worst day for impacts along the Carolina coast. Even though the storm may be a Category 1 by this time (winds of 80-90 mph the sheer size of Dorian’s expansive wind field may translate into a damaging storm surge for coastal communities. Map: WeatherBell.
European Solution. The ECWMF is a little slower and further out to sea, suggesting a glancing blow for Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Regardless, tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane conditions are likely and many low-lying barrier islands may be cut off from the mainland at the height of the storm in the Carolinas on Thursday.
Possible Direct Strike on North Carolina’s Outer Banks. The (more conservative) European model above is valid midday Friday, showing the eye of a weakened Dorian passing near Morehead City North Carolina before surging over the Outer Banks. By this time Dorian may be a Category 1 storm, but still capable of significant wind and wave damage for coastal counties.
Summary: The photos and videos coming out of the Bahamas are heartbreaking, the result of a nearly stationary Category 5 hurricane hovering overhead for the better part of 36 hours – something I’ve never seen before (anywhere). The death toll is rising and damage will run into the many billions of dollars in the Bahamas. Their Prime Minister called this storm an “historic tragedy”. Although Dorian has weakened into a strong Category 2 storm the size/radius of the storm has increased, which will bring hurricane-force conditions from near Jacksonville and Savannah to Charleston and Wilmington in the coming days. Not a catastrophic Category 5 storm, but Category 1-2, still capable of significant damage and disruption. Our advice it to continue erring on the side of caution and safety and prepare coastal facilities for an extended loss of power and possibly fresh water in the days to come. Another update Wednesday morning.
Senior Meteorologist, Praedictix
Dorian Stats. Thanks to Phil Klotzbach for some perspective on Dorian. Click here for the latest.
NASA’s Multiple Views of Hurricane Dorian from Space. Phy.org has a timely post on the imaging resource available from low Earth orbit: “Several instruments and spacecraft from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, have eyes on Hurricane Dorian, capturing different types of data from the storm. NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), aboard the Aqua satellite, senses emitted infrared and microwave radiation from Earth. The information is used to map such atmospheric phenomena as temperature, humidity, and cloud amounts and heights. In the AIRS imagery of Dorian, captured during the afternoon (local time) of Aug. 29, 2019, the large purple area indicates very cold clouds carried high into the atmosphere by deep thunderstorms. These clouds are also associated with heavy rainfall. Blue and green indicate warmer areas with shallower rain clouds, while the orange and red areas represent mostly cloud-free air…”
Image credit: “Three images of Hurricane Dorian, as seen by a trio of NASA’s Earth-observing satellites Aug. 27-29, 2019. The data sent by the spacecraft revealed in-depth views of the storm, including detailed heavy rain, cloud height and wind.” Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
How We Create Our Own Hurricane Catastrophes. Interesting perspective from The New York Times; here’s an excerpt: “Over the past 167 years, 40 percent of all hurricanes that scored direct hits on the United States struck Florida. So it shouldn’t be surprising that Dorian, the latest storm to emerge from the Atlantic, has drawn a bead on Florida’s east coast. As of now, it is expected to land somewhere there on Tuesday as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Unfortunately, we continue to construct our own disasters. A case in point: the West Palm Beach-Jupiter area of the state, within the broad cone of uncertainty for a strike by Dorian. Take a look at the growth there between 1984 and 2018…”
Animation credit: Google Earth Engine.
California Wine Carries Traces of Fukushima Fallout. Beer is suddenly looking like a good alternative, but experts say that amounts of radioactivity are harmless. Here’s an excerpt from Smithsonian: “…Last January, researchers at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, or CNRS, chanced upon a series of California wines dating between 2009 and 2012. Inspired by similar tests conducted in the aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, the French team decided to analyze the California wines for traces of radioactive particles, specifically cesium-137, a man-made isotope. Their findings, newly published in the pre-print online journal Arxiv, suggest that currents and atmospheric patterns carried radioactive particles across the Pacific, where they settled on grapevines growing in California’s wine regions. The team writes that bottles produced following the nuclear meltdown contain increased levels of cesium-137, with the cabernet revealing double the amount of pre-Fukushima radiation…”
A New Kind of Cybercrime Uses AI and Your Voice Against You. Deep fakes for doctored video, now this? Good grief. Quartz introduces us to a brave new world of unique hacks: “…A new kind of cybercrime that uses artificial intelligence and voice technology is one of the unfortunate developments of postmodernity. You can’t trust what you see, as deep fake videos have shown, or what you hear, it seems. A $243,000 voice fraud case, reported by the Wall Street Journal, proves it. In March, fraudsters used AI-based software to impersonate a chief executive from the German parent company of an unnamed UK-based energy firm, tricking his underling, the energy CEO, into making an allegedly urgent large monetary transfer by calling him on the phone. The CEO made the requested transfer to a Hungarian supplier and was contacted again with assurances that the transfer was being reimbursed immediately. That too seemed believable…”
Because Why Not? CNN has the story: “Soon Tesla owners will be able to stream Netflix and YouTube from the car’s center dashboard so they can catch up and binge on their favorite shows on the road. However, the mode only works while the car is stopped. Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to announce the upcoming feature, saying that it may be available in August and “not more than a few months” if it doesn’t roll out next month. Musk says that it is an “amazingly immersive, cinematic feel” due to the comfortable seats and surround sound audio, and that it has an “old school drive in movie experience.” “When full self-driving is approved by regulators, we will enable video while moving,” Musk wrote on Twitter…”
Cooler Pattern Dominates August. Dr. Mark Seeley reports at Minnesota WeatherTalk: “…More than half of the days in August have produced cooler than normal temperatures. As such, most climate stations report a monthly mean temperature that is 1 to 2 degrees F cooler than normal, with the largest departures in western counties. Extremes ranged from 94°F at St James (Watonwan County) on the 4th to 35°F at Hibbing (St Louis County) on the 30th. Despite the cooler than normal temperature readings for the state Minnesota did not report the nation’s lowest temperature even once during the month, somewhat unusual for our history...”
77 F. high yesterday in the Twin Cities.
77 F. average high on September 3.
76 F. high on September 3, 2018.
September 4, 1992: Early morning storms result in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.
September 4, 1941: A batch of tornadoes hits Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.
September 4, 1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and spectacular! Winds: W 3-8. High: near 70SATURDAY: Unsettled with showers developing. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 56. High: 67SUNDAY: Drier day, peeks of cool sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 54. High: 68
Dorian Drives Home Warnings of Climate Influence on Hurricanes. Here’s an excerpt from Scientific American: “…In fact, five of the 10 strongest Atlantic storms have occurred since 2016, according to NOAA. They are Dorian, Michael, Maria, Irma and Matthew. All packed winds of at least 157 mph, and each caused tens of billions of dollars in damage, according to NOAA and the Insurance Information Institute. Maria, Irma and Michael were Category 5 storms when they struck the United States; Matthew was a Category 5 as it entered the Caribbean but weakened substantially by the time it made landfall in South Carolina. Scientists have warned that hurricane intensity will rise over the next century as ocean waters warm, providing more energy to tropical systems as they move toward land. Research since 2017 has borne out such predictions, with larger, wetter and more destructive hurricanes occurring almost annually...”
Image credit: “Astronaut Nick Hague, aboard the International Space Station, posted this photograph of Hurricane Dorian to Twitter on Sept. 2, 2019.” Credit: Nick Hague NASA
Why Are More Extreme Storms Stalling. Harvey, Florence, now Dorian – all stalling for extended periods of time, compounding rainfall, destructive winds and storm surges. Is there a climate connection? Here’s an excerpt from Big Think: “…In recent years, scientists have identified a pattern: Severe hurricanes are not only becoming stronger and more common, but many are also moving more slowly and even stalling, as Hurricane Harvey did over Houston for days in 2017, dumping 60 inches of rain in the process. A study published in June by NASA and NOAA scientists showed that the average forward speed of North Atlantic hurricanes has slowed from 11.5 mph in 1944 to 9.6 mph in 2017. So, is climate change making hurricanes slower? It’s too early to say for sure, and the issue is still an area of debate among climate scientists...”
DORIAN: Climate Nexus has more perspective: “A storm expert’s view: Dorian’s damage remains impossible to predict (New York Times $), why are hurricanes like dorian stalling, and is global warming involved? (InsideClimate News), CNN meteorologist: Never seen anything like Dorian (CNN), Trump doubles down on wrong Dorian information (MSNBC), North Carolina’s climate change blind spots make Dorian more dangerous (Slate), as Dorian nears, Florida nursing homes face heat for lacking generators (Reuters), thousands of Floridians ‘unfazed’ by Hurricane Dorian’s storm path (Fox News), why Hurricane Dorian is so hard to track (Wall Street Journal $), when it comes to recent powerful storms, Hurricane Dorian is 1 of many (NPR), Florida nursing homes evacuating ahead of Dorian; Sen. Rick Scott ‘mad’ not all have generators (Naples News), hurricane forecasters turn to new tools to predict when storms will rapidly intensify (Washington Post $), hurricanes hard at work on Labor Day weekends in Florida (AP), Trump’s Florida Mar-a-Lago resort in Hurricane Dorian’s path (AP), Florida’s cities are building to fight rising seas. Small towns may struggle to defend themselves.” (CNN).
Image credit: NASA ISS.
Climate Change is Also Terrible for Your Ragweed Allergy. A post at Quartz has the good news: “…Ragweed thrives in hot, wet weather—precisely the kind of summer we now know to be typical of the climate crisis. This year, the US has experienced above-average rainfall, coupled with warm temperatures. Such perfect conditions (for ragweed) beget more plants, producing a longer ragweed season and postponing relief for allergy sufferers. “The last few years, the trend has been for higher ragweed counts, and part of that is the longer season and general climate warming,” allergist Stanley Fineman told Web MD. “We anticipate the pollen will be significant this year...”
Photo credit: “Don’t get too close.” AP Photo/Daniel Hulshizer.
Doctors Don’t Care About the Politics of Climate Change. We Focus on the Facts. An Op-Ed at The Guardian caught my eye; here’s an excerpt: “…The serious direct and indirect health impacts of climate change include mortality and morbidity resulting from heat stress and extreme weather events; an increase in the transmission of vector-borne diseases; food insecurity; mental ill-health; and negative effects from adverse changes in air pollution. There is inequity in the distribution of these impacts both within and between countries. Although there is an acknowledgement of the environmental harms associated with climate change, the connection between climate change and human health is less understood. National leadership and national coordination are required to draw attention to this issue and to implement interventions to mitigate the health impacts of climate change…”
Photo credit: “Medical associations in Australia, America and Britain declare a climate health emergency as future doctors rate climate change their biggest challenge.” Photograph: Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters.
With $32 Trillion in Assets, Investors Demand Immediate Action on Climate Change. Here’s an excerpt from an article at Forbes: “A global group of 415 investors managing $32 trillion in assets just released a combined statement urging governments to accelerate their actions to mitigate climate change. The 2018 Global Investor Statement to Governments on Climate Change reiterated their support of the ongoing Paris Agreement discussions taking place during COP24 in Katowice, Poland. The group of global investors manages the funds of millions of beneficiaries around the world and urges governments to support and quickly adopt measures outlined in the Paris Agreement. The group warns that ignoring action against climate change could cause permanent economic damage up to four times the size of the 2008 financial crisis. To mitigate these economic damages, the group of investors calls on global leaders to commit to three priorities…”
Image credit: “Modeled temperature change throughout the remainder of the 21st century, dependent on different emissions levels.” IPCC Report.
Climate Change is Bad for the Planet, but Groundbreaking for Archeology. Quartz has a fascinating post; here’s a clip: “…With global temperatures on the rise, mountain ice has begun to thaw at a drastic pace. As a result, ancient artifacts long lost between layers of ice and snow are starting to come to the surface. Since the 1990s, Otzi is just one of the thousands of remarkable discoveries that archaeologists have unearthed from glaciers and ice patches across the world. “Glacial archaeology has developed as an archaeological discipline because of the melting of mountain ice, brought on by climate change,” said Lars Holger Pilø, co-director of the Glacial Archaeology Program in Norway’s Oppland. “Glacial archaeology is quite different from normal archaeology in the lowlands. Besides the very different environment, we only have a short time window each year to conduct fieldwork— between when the snow from the previous winter has melted and the new winter snow arrives...”
Image credit: “Take a picture before it melts.” AP Photo/Felipe Dana.
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